Holiday sales and the status of the American consumer!
Big deals are on the rise like KMART and SEARS; ORACLE and PEOPLESOFT; ATT WIRELESS and CINGULAR; SPRINT and NEXTEL. The pace may accelerate in 2005.
Can the U.S. keep up the Productivity Miracle? According to the UCLA Anderson Forecast productivity grew in the U.S. at an annual rate of 1.7 percent from 1970 to 1998. Since 1998 it has been growing at 3.8 percent. But this incredible rate appears to be slowing. Can it reaccelerate?
Maybe even more important is the number of hours worked by U.S. workers. Hours worked have dipped enormously since the recession of 2001 and have not reaccelerated. GDP growth is the sum of growth in hours worked plus growth in productivity. We need productivity growth and an increase in hours worked to keep the GDP growing. It’s not just JOBS! Its how long are people working on those jobs, and what are they accomplishing.
Rate of change in wage increases!
Can corporate earnings growth keep pace with consensus forecasts?
What new innovations are going to change the investment landscape? What is the next IPOD?
Will real estate keep going up, level out, or will the bubble burst?
Will China and Japan keep buying our bonds, and at what price?
How far will the dollar fall?
How high will the price of gold go?
The next big accounting scandal!
Will oil get back to $50, before it retreats below $40?
The war on terror!
The terrorist’s war on us!
Debt, private and public! TOO MUCH!
Could we get the ultimate contrarians surprise from the stock market and actually see growth stocks outperform “value” stocks for the first time in many years? Check out this table. See large growth stocks near the bottom during the past four years. Could they lead the market in the first quarter or half of 2005?
